What are the determinants of refugee initiatives?
Christopher Cosler and Lisa Schmid
December 4, 2015
Introduction
Refugees Welcome
Refugee Initiatives
… in Germany 
Refugee Initiatives
… in Berlin 
Refugee Initiatives
… the example of “Moabit hilft” in Berlin Moabit 
Theory and Hypotheses
We test for common determinants of political participation used in the social capital theory:
- Age (+)
- Gender (males +)
- Education (+)
- GDP per capita (+)
- Unemployment rate (-)
Theory and Hypotheses
Furthermore, we control for
- Population density (“city effect”)
- Number of refugees per district (“need hypothesis”)
- East/West Germany
- Voter turnour (catch all variable for political participation)
Data Sources
- ProAsyl map
- German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy
- German Federal Statistical Office
- German Regional Statistical Offices
Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variable 
Descriptive Statistics
East-West 
Descriptive Statistics
East-West 
Descriptive Statistics
Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) 
Descriptive Statistics
Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) 
Descriptive Statistics
Voter Turnout 
Descriptive Statistics
Voter Turnout 
Predicted Probabilities
East-West Divide 
Predicted Probabilities
Age 
Predicted Probabilities
GDP per capita 
Predicted Probabilities
Gender 
Predicted Probabilities
Voter Turnout 
Conclusion
We find positive evidence for the following hypotheses:
Thank you for your attention!