What are the determinants of refugee initiatives?

Christopher Cosler and Lisa Schmid

December 4, 2015

Introduction

Refugees Welcome
Refugees Welcome

Refugee Initiatives

… in Germany Refugee Initiatives in Berlin

Refugee Initiatives

… in Berlin Refugee Initiatives in Berlin

Refugee Initiatives

… the example of “Moabit hilft” in Berlin Moabit Moabit hilft

Theory and Hypotheses

We test for common determinants of political participation used in the social capital theory:

  • Age (+)
  • Gender (males +)
  • Education (+)
  • GDP per capita (+)
  • Unemployment rate (-)

Theory and Hypotheses

Furthermore, we control for

  • Population density (“city effect”)
  • Number of refugees per district (“need hypothesis”)
  • East/West Germany
  • Voter turnour (catch all variable for political participation)

Data Sources

  • ProAsyl map 1
  • German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy 2
  • German Federal Statistical Office 3
  • German Regional Statistical Offices 4

Descriptive Statistics

Dependent Variable Refugee Initiatives per District

Descriptive Statistics

East-West Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

East-West

Descriptive Statistics

Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

Age (Old Age Dependency Ratio = population 65+ by population 15-64) Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

Voter Turnout Histogram of refugee

Descriptive Statistics

Voter Turnout Histogram of refugee

Predicted Probabilities

East-West Divide Histogram of refugee

Predicted Probabilities

Age Histogram of refugee

Predicted Probabilities

GDP per capita Histogram of refugee

Predicted Probabilities

Gender Histogram of refugee

Predicted Probabilities

Voter Turnout Histogram of refugee

Conclusion

We find positive evidence for the following hypotheses:

Thank you for your attention!


  1. https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zc6TdvfelKuY.kUvriXoSREXw

  2. http://www.geodatenzentrum.de/geodaten/gdz_rahmen.gdz_div?gdz_spr=deu&gdz_akt_zeile=5&gdz_anz_zeile=1&gdz_unt_zeile=19&gdz_user_id=0

  3. https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online

  4. https://www.regionalstatistik.de/genesis/online